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An overview of the Iranian economy
Iran's economy relies mainly on exports of oil and natural gas, accounting for 70% of revenues. Where it owns 10% of proven oil reserves in the world. It is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC, Iran produces 4 million barrels per day more than half of them exported abroad while the remaining amount goes to domestic consumption. Estimated reserves are estimated at $ 152 billion. Iran's natural gas reserves are estimated at 29.61 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 15% of the world's gas reserves. Iran exports gas to Turkey and Armenia. Agriculture accounts for about 23 percent of Iran's gross national product and absorbs around 28 percent of the workforce. Only about 25 percent of the land can be grown because of the severe water shortage, and Iran must import a lot of its food. Wheat and barley are cultivated in about 75% of cultivated land. Iran is also an agricultural country, with 80% of its population working in agriculture. Manufacturing accounts for about 18% of Iran's GDP and absorbs around 25% of the workforce. The main products manufactured are bricks, cement, food products, petroleum products and textiles. Iran's factories also produce chemicals, leather goods, machine tools, refined copper, steel (steel) and tobacco products.
As for their human capacities at home, young people represent two-thirds of the population.
According to a report released by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in early February, the HDI was 0.798.
Where it surpassed all countries in the region and ranked 60th in the world, putting it on the brink of entering the club of countries with a very high indicator in the field of human development.
Trump and his obsession with sanctions
US President Donald Trump announced in May his country's withdrawal from the UN nuclear deal with Iran, and Washington's intention to resume all sanctions against Iran and impose sanctions against other countries that do or cooperate with Iran. The United States imposed the first part of its sanctions on Iran on August 7. These sanctions include the export of Iranian oil and all its importers. Washington has announced its intention to seek to reduce Iranian oil sales to zero, calling on countries in the world to give up. The strategy aims to paralyze Iran's oil-dependent economy and force Tehran not only to abandon its nuclear ambitions, but also this time to abandon its ballistic missile program and influence in Syria.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia announced their ability to compensate for Iranian oil and meet the needs of the market. This was reflected in the issuance of a statement by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia after the release of the US statement on sanctions, and clarified that it would meet the demands of its customers, including customers who replace Iranian oil drums with Saudi supplies. And reiterated its commitment to meeting all these demands. But it will do so while remaining clearly within the OPEC + agreement. It does not need to exceed the voluntary limit of the OPEC + agreement. By the end of May, it will be well below that limit because its production is well below 10 million barrels per day and exports are less than 7 million until the end of May.
Teams from the US Treasury and State Departments have traveled to more than 20 countries since Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018 to warn companies and nations of the dangers of engaging in activities with Iran.
Japan and South Korea have cut US allies to import Iranian crude already. But the position is less clear among others are the biggest buyers.
Indeed, three of the top five customers of Iran, India, China and Turkey reject Washington's call for a complete halt to purchases on the grounds that there is not enough global supplies to replace them, as well as fears of a spike in oil prices that would have a devastating impact.
Before the sanctions came into force in November last year, Iran exported 2.5 million barrels per day, and after the sanctions came into effect, Iran exported about 1 million barrels per day. The export rate was rising in some months and falling in others. (China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan).
It is no secret to anyone that the goal of the US administration is to blacken the Islamic Republic's exports of black gold. Three countries have already stopped buying Iranian oil (Italy, Greece and Taiwan) and have fallen to American will.
Five countries have not stopped importing oil from the Islamic Republic (China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Japan).
For the Chinese dragon is the largest importer of Iranian oil, the import range between 500 – 650 thousand barrels per day, has declared explicitly that it rejects these sanctions in toto, and also suffer from US sanctions on its economy and rejects this principle from the ground.
India usually imports more than 500,000 bpd of Iranian oil, but has reduced that level in recent months, according to official data.
Turkey's imports of Iranian crude oil in June fell 69 percent from May to 287,843 tonnes.
As for South Korea and Japan, they are among the most important allies of the United States of America and are likely to be subject to American dictates, and thus Safir and their desire of Iranian oil.
It should be noted that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, when he talked about the arrival of imports to zero, left the door close to the continuity of granting exemptions, but without explaining to whom or even gives a lot of hopes.
Ability to withstand
Iran may stand by its three allies, China, India and Turkey. Not only that, but also because of its neighbors, on the other hand, given Iran's geographical location, it has strong influence in Iraq's southern border state, and the latter has announced that it can not abandon the Iranian gas desperately needed, to generate electricity and will rise in this need Next years.
It is worth mentioning that Iran waited a long time before the US administration began to pour out its imports. It started working with its neighbor Pakistan. Not long ago, the Pakistani prime minister was visiting Iran, where he talked about activating cooperation between the port of Jebhar in southern Iran, The only exempt from the US sanctions, being an alternative to Afghanistan, there is a railway project from Afghanistan to Iran, Afghanistan does not have any sea port, and this reflects the American desire to stop Afghanistan's dependence on Pakistan to the tension of US relations with the latter.
If the revitalization of cooperation will be between the only port exempt from US sanctions "Jabhar" with the port, "Gwadar" in southern Pakistan.
Iran has announced that it is ready to meet the need of Pakistan's electricity power ten times, and meet the need for Pakistan in both oil and gas, and the Pakistani Prime Minister expressed full readiness for this cooperation.
For several years, the Islamic Republic has seen unjust US sanctions and can circumvent these sanctions, such as exporting oil through ships carrying flags to foreign countries, and other vessels that cut off tracking signals in international waters. They also carry oil shipments to unknown ships and other ships from foreign countries. Less than the market, moreover, Iran's ability to store oil in offshore sites and neighboring countries.
As for the EU, it is likely that its countries will circumvent US sanctions and trade in Iranian goods and oil.
The Russian Federation, a permanent member of the Security Council, has condemned unilateral sanctions many times, and this is a courageous and moral position to be reckoned with. .
The Islamic Republic is fully aware of these sanctions and relies on two pillars: its relations with countries, the need of these countries for Iranian oil and gas and its relations with its neighbors, especially Pakistan, through activating cooperation between the only port exempt from the US sanctions "Jabhar" with the port of "Gwadar" To her influential political and diplomatic presence in the region, especially the world as a whole, and to forget the internal pillar of youth, who represent two-thirds of the Iranian state.
Economic sanctions do not bring down rulers, undermine regimes, and increase the popularity of those regimes, whether repressive or democratic. Repressive regimes are increasingly suppressing and subjugating their people under the pretext of external conspiracy, and their officials are increasingly involved in corruption. Its purpose is to starve and subjugate peoples, and an introduction to the spread of domination and influence and control of their capabilities.
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