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Scenarios of escalation in Lebanon and opportunities for civil war

Arab world


A group of supporters of the Progressive Socialist Party, led by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, led the convoy of Minister of Displaced Affairs Saleh al-Gharib, a member of an anti-Druze movement, on Sunday, fearing a slide into civil war.
According to experts, the internal tensions in Lebanon are linked to the regional tensions in the region, especially in light of the differences in internal attitudes towards the events and international tensions.
The political analyst Wassim Bazzi said that with the gravity of what happened in the mountain region on Sunday, despite the features of "civil strife" and the memory of the past in the area of ​​"Chouf" between the audience Walid Jumblatt, which prepared a case of objection prepared in advance for the visit of Foreign Minister Gibran Basil, "Chouf" Despite the presence of concealed weapons in the manifestations of the opposition, and the fall of victims from within the house Druze different with Jumblatt, but a combination of internal and external reasons prevent the decline of Lebanon back to the field of wars.

Factors that prevent slippage

He said in special remarks to Sputnik on Monday that the most important factors preventing the civil war is the national will of semi-university not to slide into this scene.
He explained that this matter is immune to the position of the President of the Republic and the official institutions, especially the leadership of the army and the major political forces led by Hezbollah, Free Patriotic Movement, Future Movement and Amal Movement, and that these forces largely resolve the internal mood "And the balance of political and even sectarian forces against the dangers.
He added that the balance of military forces at home is governed by the will of two major forces at home, namely, the Lebanese army and the resistance, and that will resolve any delinquency towards war, and therefore the lack of capacity in the event of will.
He pointed out that the limits of what has happened, does not enjoy any external cover of the big players, especially in the case of housing, or coexistence, which Lebanon has been between the two warring areas in the region for more than eight years.

Try to intercept

He stressed that what happened was nothing more than a desperate opposition by Walid Jumblatt, and that led him to commit this bloody risk within the Druze house, in an attempt to break the context of events in the game of internal sizes, which has made him pay a heavy price since the arrival of Michel Aoun To the presidency in October 2016.

Regional tensions

Lebanese political analyst Samih Saab said that internal security events and the ongoing political turmoil in Lebanon can not be separated from developments in the region and the high level of tension between the United States and Iran.
He added in special statements to Sputnik that the matter is also linked to the Idlib and Rifi front of Hama and Aleppo, and signs of a direct confrontation between the Syrian and Turkish armies, and that these fires in the region apparently began to touch Lebanon in the form of a political clash between a number of forces , Especially between the "Free Patriotic Movement" allied with "Hezbollah" and the Socialist Party, which takes positions that contradict the positions of the "Free Patriotic Movement" against several files.
He pointed out that this conflict begins with the file of the displaced Syrians, and the view of the regime in Syria, to the remarks of the Socialist Party, the performance of the "Free Patriotic Movement" in the internal issues, including the economic and financial crises, which floundering Lebanon.

Presidential compromise

He added that many parties and parties in Lebanon feared a renewal of the so-called "presidential compromise" between the Free Patriotic Movement and Future Movement led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
According to Samih Saab, this settlement came to be known as General Michel Aoun three years ago. And that some fear that resurrecting this "settlement" may bring the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil to head in the upcoming elections.
However, translating the political tension into security events on the ground increases the fear of Lebanon sliding into security cracks and a reflection of the current regional confrontations in the Gulf, Yemen and Syria. .

Sectarianism

Gulay al-Assaad, a former candidate for the parliamentary elections, believes that sectarian discourse used by political leaders is driving citizens towards sectarianism.
She added in special remarks to "Sputnik" on Monday, that the economic situation and sectarian shipping pushed into the scene that occurred in Lebanon.
She added that the politicians are speaking in violation of their actions that exaggerate sectarianism, and that the Lebanese people reject the issue of sliding into civil war.
She stressed that the processes of quotas in government and the regime are pushing the country towards destruction.
Lebanon's Minister of Displacement Affairs, Saleh Al-Gharib, said Sunday that his motorcade was shot in the Mount Lebanon province.
Al-Gharib said, according to statements by the National Media Agency, that gunmen shot at his motorcade and that he was part of the procession, noting that he was injured during the incident 3 of his companions, one of them critically.
"We were on our way in the area of ​​the Tomb of Shomron and we were surprised by bullets," said the stranger, according to the agency.


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